Tuesday, September 15, 2009
Profitable Candlestick Trading: Pinpointing Market Opportunities to Maximize Profit
Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques - Second Edition
Elliott Wave Principle : Key to Market Behavior
Candlestick Charting Explained
A Complete Guide to Technical Trading Tactics : How to Profit Using Pivot Points, Candlesticks & Other Indicators
Currency Strategy : A Practitioner's Guide to Currency Trading, Hedging and Forecasting
Beat the Forex Dealer: An insider's look into trading today's foreign exchange market
The foreign-exchange market is often referred to as the Slaughterhouse where novice traders go to get 'chopped up'. It is one of egos and money, where millions of dollars are won and lost every day and phones are routinely thrown across hectic trading desks. This palpable excitement has led to the explosion of the retail FX market, which has unfortunately spawned a new breed of authors and gurus more than happy to provide misleading and often downright fraudulent information by promising traders riches while making forex trading 'easy'.
Covering the day-to-day mechanics of the FX market and the unsavoury dealings going on, Beat the Forex Dealer offers traders the market-proven trading techniques needed to side-step dealer traps and develop winning trading methods. Learn from an industry insider the truth behind dirty dealer practices including: stop-hunting, price shading, trading against clients and 'no dealing desk' realities. Detailing the dealer-inspired trading techniques developed by MIGFX Inc, consistently ranked among the world's leading currency trading firms, the book helps turn average traders into winning traders; and in a market with a 90% loss rate winning traders are in fact quite rare! More than just a simple manual, Beat the Forex Dealer brings to life the excitement of the FX market by delivering insights into some of the greatest trading triumphs and highlighting legendary disasters; all written in an easy to read style.
Beat the Odds in Forex Trading: How to Identify and Profit from High Percentage Market Patterns
Add certainty and systematization into Forex trading with this practical approach. Author and industry professional Igor Toshchakov shows how recurring market patterns--which can be recognized on a simple bar chart--can be successfully used to trade the Forex market. Written for traders at every level, this valuable resource discusses the challenges of developing a trading method, while revealing the Toshchakov's approach to the market--both from a philosophical and tactical point of view. You'll discover specific trading strategies based on recognizable market patterns, get detailed information on entry and exit points, profit targets, stop losses, risk evaluation, and much more.
"Beat the Odds in Forex Trading provides traders with tremendous value by disseminating the trading methods and philosophy of one of the most remarkable Forex success stories since Soros."
Automatic Alpha : How to Build a Winning FOREX Trading System (CD-ROM)
Adventures of a Currency Trader
Patience to Gain Knowledge through Study and Focus
Many new traders believe all you need to profitably trade foreign currencies are charts, technical indicators and a small bankroll. Most of them blow up (lose all their money) within a few weeks or months; some are initially successful and it takes as long as a year before they blow up. A tiny minority with good money management skills, patience, and a market niche go on to be successful traders. Armed with charts, technical indicators, and a small bankroll, the chance of succeeding is probably 500 to 1.
To increase your chances of success to near certainty requires knowledge; acquiring knowledge takes hard work, study, dedication and focus. Compile your knowledge base without taking any shortcuts, thereby assuring a solid foundation to build upon.
Essential Elements of a Successful Trader
All the foreign exchange trading knowledge in the world is not going to help, unless you have the nerve to buy and sell currencies and put your money at risk. As with the lottery “You gotta be in it to win it”. Trust me when I say that the simple task of hitting the buy or sell key is extremely difficult to do when your own real money is put at risk.
You will feel anxiety, even fear. Here lies the moment of truth. Do you have the courage to be afraid and act anyway? When a fireman runs into a burning building I assume he is afraid but he does it anyway and achieves the desired result. Unless you can overcome or accept your fear and do it anyway, you will not be a successful trader.
However, once you learn to control your fear, it gets easier and easier and in time there is no fear. The opposite reaction can become an issue – you’re overconfident and not focused enough on the risk you're taking.
Both the inability to initiate a trade, or close a losing trade can create serious psychological issues for a trader going forward. By calling attention to these potential stumbling blocks beforehand, you can properly prepare prior to your first real trade and develop good trading habits from day one.
Start by analyzing yourself. Are you the type of person that can control their emotions and flawlessly execute trades, oftentimes under extremely stressful conditions? Are you the type of person who’s overconfident and prone to take more risk than they should? Before your first real trade you need to look inside yourself and get the answers. We can correct any deficiencies before they result in paralysis (not pulling the trigger) or a huge loss (overconfidence). A huge loss can prematurely end your trading career, or prolong your success until you can raise additional capital.
The difficulty doesn’t end with “pulling the trigger”. In fact what comes next is equally or perhaps more difficult. Once you are in the trade the next hurdle is staying in the trade. When trading foreign exchange you exit the trade as soon as possible after entry when it is not working. Most people who have been successful in non-trading ventures find this concept difficult to implement.
For example, real estate tycoons make their fortune riding out the bad times and selling during the boom periods. The problem with trying to adapt a 'hold on until it comes back' strategy in foreign exchange is that most of the time the currencies are in long-term persistent, directional trends and your equity will be wiped out before the currency comes back.
The other side of the coin is staying in a trade that is working. The most common pitfall is closing out a winning position without a valid reason. Once again, fear is the culprit. Your subconscious demons will be scaring you non-stop with questions like “what if news comes out and you wind up with a loss”. The reality is if news comes out in a currency that is going up, the news has a higher probability of being positive than negative (more on why that is so in a later article).
So your fear is just a baseless annoyance. Don’t try and fight the fear. Accept it. Have a laugh about it and then move on to the task at hand, which is determining an exit strategy based on actual price movement. As Garth says in Waynesworld “Live in the now man”. Worrying about what could be is irrational. Studying your chart and determining an objective exit point is reality based and rational.
Another common pitfall is closing a winning position because you are bored with it; its not moving. In Football, after a star running back breaks free for a 50-yard gain, he comes out of the game temporarily for a breather. When he reenters the game he is a serious threat to gain more yards – this is indisputable. So when your position takes a breather after a winning move, the next likely event is further gains – so why close it?
If you can be courageous under fire and strategically patient, foreign exchange trading may be for you. If you’re a natural gunslinger and reckless you will need to tone your act down a notch or two and we can help you make the necessary adjustments. If putting your money at risk makes you a nervous wreck its because you lack the knowledge base to be confident in your decision making.
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Strong Equities Drag U.S. Dollar Lower Ahead of North American Close

(CEP News) - The U.S. dollar started out strong, but is ending the day weaker across the board as equities prepare to close in positive territory for the third straight day.
It has been a volatile day in FX markets as the Swiss National Bank announced that it would intervene in currency markets to depreciate its currency.While currency markets reacted to the central bank news, they shrugged off better-than-expected U.S. retail sales and another increase in U.S. weekly jobless claims. At 9 a.m. EDT, the SNB announced a 25 basis point cut.
"The value of the Swiss franc has increased substantially since the beginning of the financial crisis in August 2007. This currency development has gained momentum since the National Bank's last assessment in December. Under the present circumstances, this represents an inappropriate tightening of monetary conditions. In view of this development, the SNB has decided to purchase foreign currency on the foreign exchange market, to prevent any further appreciation of the Swiss franc against the euro," the bank said in its statement.
While the news supported the euro across the board, it also pushed the U.S. dollar higher across the board. The U.S. dollar index rose almost a full percentage point on the initial reaction. The index hit session highs at 88.545.
The U.S. dollar was able to hold most of its gains throughout the day despite strong equities. The sell-off started at 2:30 p.m. EDT and is picking up momentum into the North American close.
Currency strategists said the U.S. dollar made broad gains because some investors felt nervous about the aggressive action from the SNB, which caused a flight to safety.
"At this point I think the U.S. dollar is acting as a default currency," said Stephen Gallo, head of market analysis at Schneider FX. "Bottom line is that quantitative measures aren't good for currency markets. At the moment the U.S. dollar will continue to benefit."
Currency strategists will continue to watch equity markets to determine short-term direction for the U.S. dollar. There is a lot of doubt that equities will continue to make gains. Any signs of risk aversion will continue to support the U.S. dollar.
It has been a relatively quiet week for U.S. data. On Friday, markets will receive U.S. trade balance data and Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment results. Economists expect that the U.S. trade deficit will narrow to $38 billion in January, following December's deficit of $39.9 billion.
Economists expect that consumer sentiment will continue to remain weak, falling to a level of 55.0 in March, following February's reading of 56.3.
Euro/USD up 0.58 cents to 1.2894
USD/CAD down 0.48 cents to 1.2804
USD/Yen up 0.54 points to 97.82
GBP/USD up 0.52 cents to 1.3928
AUD/USD up 0.04 cents to 0.6525
Euro/Yen up 1.28 points to 126.14
Euro/GBP up 0.06 pence to 0.9260
GBP/CAD down 0.03 cents to 1.7826
CAD/Yen up 0.72 points to 76.42
Euro/CAD up 0.12 cents to 1.6510
The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.21 points to 87.66
Aussie Dollar Weaker After Mixed Employment Report
Economists were expecting a rise in the unemployment rate to 5.0% and 20,000 jobs lost.
Data taken at 7:10 a.m. EDT,
The euro was up 0.0133 to 1.9815 against the Australian dollar.
The Australian dollar was down 0.0073 to 0.6449 against the greenback.
The Canadian dollar was up 0.0085 to 1.2017 against the Australian dollar.
The Australian dollar was down 1.3700 to 62.075 against the yen.
The Australian dollar was up 0.0092 to 1.2609 against the New Zealand dollar.
Forex Tutorial: Introduction to Currency Trading
FOREX is the world’s largest and most liquid trading market. Many consider FOREX as the best home business you can ever venture in. Even though regular people have had the opportunity to take part in trading foreign currencies for profit (in the same way banks and large corporations do) since 1998, it is just now becoming the cool, hip, new "thing" to talk about at parties, business events, and other social gatherings.
Even though it has been somewhat of a loosely guarded secret, every day more and more investors are turning to the all-electronic world of FOREX trading for income and profit because of its numerous benefits & advantages over traditional trading vehicles, like stocks, bonds and commodities.
But, still, whenever something seems new or is just becoming a part of social conversation, news articles, and water cooler gossip, misconceptions have to be overcome, the mind
has to be open and the slate has to be clear for starting out fresh with the CORRECT information.
So, in this article, it is my attempt to give you some solid, but not over-detailed, information on just what the heck "FX" (FOREX) means, what it is, and why it exists.
As a successful trader said, Trading FOREX is like picking money up off the floor. Not trading FOREX is like leaving it there for someone else to pick up." Others in the industry
have also said, Trading FOREX is like having an ATM machine on your own computer.
Here's an explanation (one I feel you'll appreciate) of what FOREX is and how a bunch of traders, profit from it:
The Foreign Exchange Market, also referred to the "FOREX" or "FX" market, is the spot (cash) market for currency.
But, don't mistake FX as trading the futures market, where you buy a contract to purchase a particular currency at a future price in time.
What FX traders do is much less risky than trading currencies on the futures market, much more profitable, and a lot easier, than trading stocks.
So, you're probably wondering where it's at ... or ... how to access the FX market?
The answer is: FX Trading is not bound to any one trading floor and is not centralized on an exchange, as with the stock and futures markets. The FX market is considered an Over-the-Counter (OTC) or 'Interbank' market, due to the fact that the entire market is run electronically, within a network of banks, continuously over a 24-hour period.
Yes, if that's the first time you've heard about an all-electronic market, I know this may sound somewhat intriguing to you.
Here's what you are actually trading when you participate in the Foreign Exchange (FOREX) market:
Essentially, like the large banks who use the FX market to protect themselves from the fluctuating exchange rate of different currencies, as an investor, what a FX trader is doing is
simultaneously exchanging one countries currency for another. So, in actuality, they're electronically trading a currency-pair and the price that is quoted to us is the exchange rate
between the two currencies.
In other words, simply the quoted price is how many of the one currency is worth 1 of the other currency.
Example:
EUR/USD last trade 1.2850 - One Euro is worth $1.2850 US dollars.The first currency (in this example, the EURO) is referred to as the base currency and the second (/USD) as the counter or quote currency.
The FOREX has a DAILY trading volume of around $1.5 trillion dollars - 30 times larger than the combined volume of all U.S. equity markets. This means that 1,498,574 skilled traders could each take 1 million dollars out of the FOREX market every day and the FOREX would still have more money left than the New York Stock exchange every day!
The FOREX plays a vital role in the world economy and there will always be a tremendous need for the FOREX. International trade increases as technology and communication increases. As long as there is international trade, there will be a FOREX market. The FX market has to exist so a country like Japan can sell products in the United States and be able to receive Japanese Yen in exchange for US Dollar.
There's plenty of money to be made using FOREX for plenty of traders that use the right trading techniques / tactics that will allow them to profit immensely. And, with only 5% of the daily turnover of volume coming from banks, government and large corporations who need to hedge, the other 95% is for speculation and profit.
Forex
FOREX is the world’s largest and most liquid trading market. Many consider FOREX as the best home business you can ever venture in. Even though regular people have had the opportunity to take part in trading foreign currencies for profit (in the same way banks and large corporations do) since 1998, it is just now becoming the cool, hip, new "thing" to talk about at parties, business events, and other social gatherings.
Even though it has been somewhat of a loosely guarded secret, every day more and more investors are turning to the all-electronic world of FOREX trading for income and profit because of its numerous benefits & advantages over traditional trading vehicles, like stocks, bonds and commodities.
But, still, whenever something seems new or is just becoming a part of social conversation, news articles, and water cooler gossip, misconceptions have to be overcome, the mind
has to be open and the slate has to be clear for starting out fresh with the CORRECT information.
So, in this article, it is my attempt to give you some solid, but not over-detailed, information on just what the heck "FX" (FOREX) means, what it is, and why it exists.
As a successful trader said, Trading FOREX is like picking money up off the floor. Not trading FOREX is like leaving it there for someone else to pick up." Others in the industry
have also said, Trading FOREX is like having an ATM machine on your own computer.
Here's an explanation (one I feel you'll appreciate) of what FOREX is and how a bunch of traders, profit from it:
The Foreign Exchange Market, also referred to the "FOREX" or "FX" market, is the spot (cash) market for currency.
But, don't mistake FX as trading the futures market, where you buy a contract to purchase a particular currency at a future price in time.
What FX traders do is much less risky than trading currencies on the futures market, much more profitable, and a lot easier, than trading stocks.
So, you're probably wondering where it's at ... or ... how to access the FX market?
The answer is: FX Trading is not bound to any one trading floor and is not centralized on an exchange, as with the stock and futures markets. The FX market is considered an Over-the-Counter (OTC) or 'Interbank' market, due to the fact that the entire market is run electronically, within a network of banks, continuously over a 24-hour period.
Yes, if that's the first time you've heard about an all-electronic market, I know this may sound somewhat intriguing to you.
Here's what you are actually trading when you participate in the Foreign Exchange (FOREX) market:
Essentially, like the large banks who use the FX market to protect themselves from the fluctuating exchange rate of different currencies, as an investor, what a FX trader is doing is
simultaneously exchanging one countries currency for another. So, in actuality, they're electronically trading a currency-pair and the price that is quoted to us is the exchange rate
between the two currencies.
In other words, simply the quoted price is how many of the one currency is worth 1 of the other currency.
Example:
EUR/USD last trade 1.2850 - One Euro is worth $1.2850 US dollars.The first currency (in this example, the EURO) is referred to as the base currency and the second (/USD) as the counter or quote currency.
The FOREX has a DAILY trading volume of around $1.5 trillion dollars - 30 times larger than the combined volume of all U.S. equity markets. This means that 1,498,574 skilled traders could each take 1 million dollars out of the FOREX market every day and the FOREX would still have more money left than the New York Stock exchange every day!
The FOREX plays a vital role in the world economy and there will always be a tremendous need for the FOREX. International trade increases as technology and communication increases. As long as there is international trade, there will be a FOREX market. The FX market has to exist so a country like Japan can sell products in the United States and be able to receive Japanese Yen in exchange for US Dollar.
There's plenty of money to be made using FOREX for plenty of traders that use the right trading techniques / tactics that will allow them to profit immensely. And, with only 5% of the daily turnover of volume coming from banks, government and large corporations who need to hedge, the other 95% is for speculation and profit.
Selamat Hari Raya Aidilfri
Internet problem
Currently I am watching for a certain level in GbpUsd. 1.4650 is the level I am waiting for. Believe it or not, I have not traded this week. Today GU nearly hit my stop order. I am still waiting
A difficult market condition
I dont exactly know the entry point but I do know the direction. It is time to monitor the shorter time frame in order to find the best possible entry and to minimize stop loss.
It may take sometime but I dont care. I have been waiting for this moment almost 2 months. Look at the charts and see the formation of daily, 4 hour, 30 minute and 5 minute. You may see something that took me over 2 years to see.
Only time can tell if my calculation is correct. At the moment I am still waiting for the 5 minute chart to give and entry signal.
Comment by WONG CHUN WAI
The Government has thrown a RM60bil lifeline for the country to try and prevent it from slipping into a recession. But with the world economic climate looking more gloomy than ever, there are concerns that it may not be able to halt the downward trend.
IT was already 9.30pm when Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak walked into his home.
He had missed dinner with the editors he had invited for the briefing on the RM60bil mini-budget to stimulate the economy.
The Deputy Prime Minister appeared drained. His wife, Datin Seri Rosmah Mansor, asked if he had eaten.
Just some noodles, he said, adding that he had been with Prime Minister Datuk Seri Abdullah Ahmad Badawi since 3pm to go through the economic package.
As he began giving the editors a scenario of the doom-laden global economy, some of his listeners looked stunned. As he picked on the keropok on the table, it became obvious that some of those at the table had failed to see the dark clouds before the financial tsunami that is now approaching Malaysian shores.
There is no escaping the storm in an inter-connected globalised economy.
With many countries going bankrupt and their financial institutions collapsed, American billionaire Warren Buffet gave the most appropriate description — the American economy has fallen off a cliff. The US economy will eventually recover although a rebound could rekindle inflation worse than that experienced in the late 70s, he said.
He regarded the US economy as close to the worst-case scenario and added that the economy can’t turn around on a dime.
In short, it is already in free-fall and no one is sure when it will hit the ground but the US has certainly dragged the rest of the world down with it.
The grim fact is that the Malaysian exports would slump drastically with lower prices for key commodities, including palm oil and crude oil and a sharp drop in demand for electronic and electrical products.
Our foreign direct investments would be reduced by at least 50% while our stock market has already taken a beating, even before the financial crisis.
Manufacturing, particularly in the electronics sector, has already been badly affected and retrenchments have begun.
As the World Bank revised the global growth rate to 0.5%, Malaysia, like the rest of the world, has made changes to its own forecasts, expecting growth this year, even with the stimulus package, to be between -1% and +1%.
The fall has become faster than what has been expected. If we avoid the recession this year, it will be only narrowly.
Now, the International Monetary Fund expects that the global economy will contract this year, with its managing director Dominique Strauss-Kahn calling the crisis a “Great Recession”.
The fact is that a recession would have been inevitable had this economic package not come into place. The RM60bil is to stop the slide but even with the money, many see the situation as touch and go.
Singapore, for example, has already declared itself in a recession with possibly a 10% contraction. That’s how bad it could be.
But unlike the Singaporeans, Thais, Japanese, Chinese and South Koreans, we have taken a rather complacent attitude towards the economic crisis. It has not helped that some leaders kept giving assurances that Malaysia would be spared, which only provided false hope.
This is not about politics. Many European leaders have come clean by declaring they have no idea how to respond to the problem because this is unprecedented, with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao declaring that this is the most difficult year of the century.
Besides calling their people to be resilient and to face up to the challenges, many European leaders have said that their stimulus package would at best buy them time and ease the difficulties.
Najib must be saluted for being honest about the prospects ahead. It will be gloom and doom.
But the bright side, whatever little there is, in Malaysia is that liquidity is still strong in Malaysia with excess funds of over RM250bil in circulation.
The savings by Malaysians have been good and the prudent practices inculcated have helped. The highly regulated practices in our banking industry, which had been frowned upon in the past, have turned out to be of help.
The immediate concern will be on how fast the funds are disbursed to the relevant sectors so jobs can be created and the spillover effects felt by Malaysians.
There is no room for wastage and leakage. There will be little patience for any act of impropriety and incompetency with the financial tsunami fast approaching.